Moonshot thinking: Dream big, act big

The recipe for moonshots by Google

What is a Moonshot?

A moonshot is more than just ambition; it embodies a bold and courageous leap into the unknown. The term originates from President Kennedy's historic speech that led to the Apollo 11 mission. What distinguishes moonshots is their grandeur, their unflinching challenge to conventional wisdom, and their commitment to solving some of humanity's most difficult challenges.

The moonshot development process at X, a subsidiary of Google, can be summarized in three indispensable components:

1. Identifying a monumental problem: not a common problem, but a global challenge with far-reaching implications.

2. Leverage innovative technologies: harness the potential of cutting-edge technologies that, up to that point, may have seemed out of reach or seemingly unrelated to the problem at hand. This approach embodies the essence of first-principle thinking.

3. Create radical solutions: The goal is not to seek incremental improvements, but to forge 0-to-1 innovations-revolutionary breakthroughs that can reshape entire industries and societies. Moonshots do not tiptoe, they leap.

Thinking 10x not 10

The prospect of rethinking, reinventing, and revolutionizing a concept by ten orders of magnitude is extremely fascinating. It’s an invitation to push the boundaries of what is possible, to dream big, and to challenge the status quo.

What if you could achieve 10X growth while your competitors achieve 10% growth?

Working on a Moonshot means going 10X bigger when most companies are asking questions like, "How can we reduce costs by 10%?" or "How can we increase profits by 10%?"

When you try to do 10% more, you put yourself in direct competition with everyone else in your industry. And it’s a competition that you are likely to lose.

When you aim for 10 times improvement and try to do something radically difficult. You tackle the problem by trying to solve it in a completely different way, and even if you fail, you achieve results well above 10%.

“That’s what 10x does that 10 percent could never do. 10x can light a fire in hearts, and it’s hard not to get excited and think that other, seemingly impossible things might also be possible.”
- Astro Teller, Captain of Moonshots (CEO) of X

X, the moonshot factory by Google

Why Moonshot Thinking should be taught in Schools

This kind of approach should not be limited only to corporate innovation departments or research labs, it is something that should start in schools.Education is the basis for building the future, and teaching moonshot thinking to young people can empower the next generation to imagine and create a better world.

They should be taught to approach the great problems of humanity with openness and optimism. Approaching them with critical thinking and breaking them down with first principle thinking to find solutions that go outside the conventional approach.

Students should be supported in their ambitious ideas that could drive positive change. Moonshot thinking in schools encourages students to explore their passions, embrace curiosity and tackle complex problems with bold ideas.

When students are given the space to dream big, they develop the confidence and skills needed to tackle the most pressing challenges of our time, from climate change to access to health care.

A Brief History of the Moonshots: From DARPA to Skunk Works

Many of the moonshots of the past century were initiated by the research divisions of corporate giants such as AT&T's Bell Labs, IBM Research, and Xerox PARC. It’s well known how PARC influenced both Microsoft and Apple. In fact, Steve Jobs decided to launch into the design of a graphical user interface for the Macintosh after an authorized visit to their labs.

Government agencies also have a rich history of "moonshot" research. The most striking example is the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which has played a key role in catalyzing cutting-edge technologies. DARPA's challenges and competitions have been instrumental in fostering innovation in various fields, from the development of autonomous vehicles to advances in robotics.

In the private sector, Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works has become synonymous with moonshot innovation. Founded in 1943, this secretive division has spawned revolutionary aircraft such as the U-2 and SR-71 Blackbird. The Skunk Works model exemplifies the moonshot spirit: it operates with agility, embraces unconventional approaches and consistently focuses on achieving extraordinary results.

Unexpected Innovations funded by the Government

50 years after the moon landing, we find ourselves thinking we must address new global challenges such as achieving clean air in densely populated cities, enabling healthy and independent aging, expanding access to digital technologies that improve public services, and finding cures for diseases that affect millions of people worldwide.

Many of the innovations we use daily are the result of government-funded research projects that have become spillovers from other missions.

Such as the Internet that emerged trying to allow multiple computers to communicate on a single network or GPS to solve military and intelligence problems during the Cold War.

Google’s Lunar XPrize competition

Moonshots today

Today we have foundations such as the X PRIZE, founded by Peter Diamandis, that are playing a key role in redefining the way moonshots are conceived and realized. These foundations are democratizing access to ambitious projects, promoting collaboration across disciplines and purpose-driven technological advances.

This new model notes based on innovative competitions spanning diverse fields, such as: biodiversity conservation, producing clean energy, exploring space, or new discoveries in health care. By offering substantial prizes and awards, the foundation has attracted bright minds and talent from around the world, catalyzing the development of innovative solutions to some of humanity's most pressing challenges.

This creates an ecosystem where innovation thrives, where unconventional ideas are celebrated, and where the unimaginable becomes achievable.

“Our mission is to inspire and empower humanity to achieve breakthroughs that accelerate an abundant and equitable future for all.

A global future-positive movement of over 1M people and rising. A trusted, proven platform for impact that leverages the power of competition to catalyze innovation and accelerate a more hopeful future by incentivizing radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity.”- X PRIZE website

Risks and Challenges

Although the appeal of moonshots is undeniable, it is important to recognize that these ventures are not immune to stops and failures. Large tech companies, often at the forefront, saw the premature end of some projects in late 2022. Companies such as Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft had to shut down moonshots that did not meet expectations in order to rethink their strategies.

One example is Amazon's Grand Challenge, a moonshot lab that aimed to push the boundaries of technology. In 2022, Amazon made the difficult decision to shut down 3 secret projects within this lab. Similarly, Google's Alphabet, has faced unforeseen challenges, such as layoffs at Waymo or the closing of several projects.

Credit: Midjourney

These experiences highlight the risks and uncertainties associated with moonshots. While these ventures can promise to revolutionize industries and address pressing global problems, they also require large investments and accept the possibility of failure.

As we continue to explore the frontiers of innovation, we must accept the ever-present risks and challenges, recognizing that it is through these trials that our moonshots will light the way to a brighter future. The path is full of uncertainties, but the rewards are extraordinary. To change the world, we need more moonshots, each of which is a beacon of hope in our quest for progress.

Resources for a deep dive on Moonshots

• Moonshots, paper by Matthew Wansley

• Loonshots, book by Safi Bahcall

• Acquired Podcast - The Complete Story of Lockheed Martin, Skunkworks, and the US's Top Secret 1960's Satellite Program

• Acquired Podcast - Google Maps: The Complete History and Strategy

• X, the moonshot factory - Moonshot thinking

• Moonshots and Mindsets with Peter Diamandis, Founder & Executive Chairman of X PRIZE Foundation